UK Housing Data & Manufacturing PMI, ISM Index (2016.06.01)

UK Housing Data & Manufacturing PMI, ISM Index – The focus during the European morning is on the UK today. The European day starts with the Nationwide Building Society’s house price index, which is expected to show house prices continued to rise in May – don’t they always in the UK? – but at a slower pace than in April. The money supply figures include the Bank of England’s mortgage approval data, which is expected to show a slowdown in the number of mortgages granted in April. These two figures combined could cast some doubt on the strength of the housing market, which seems to be the basis of British civilization nowadays, and so taken by themselves would be negative for the pound.

At the same time, the Markit manufacturing PMI for the UK is expected to show a rise, albeit not quite back up to 50. Nonetheless, I think that could offset the impact of a weaker housing market, because it would show the economy starting to pull out of its slump. All three PMIs declined last month and on average the three (manufacturing, non-manufacturing and construction) have declined for four out of the last six months. A rise in the crucial manufacturing PMI this month would therefore be well received as it would cast doubt on the growing thesis that there is a deeper malaise growing in the UK than just anxiety ahead of Brexit.

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