Weekly Forex News (2016.03.28)
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The big day is Friday, when the US nonfarm payrolls are released – the biggest indicator of the month as everyone tries to anticipate how the data might affect the thinking of the FOMC. In their last statement, the FOMC said that “a range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market.” The market consensus is indeed that there was “additional strengthening” in March. If so, it could boost expectations of a Fed move as early as April and thereby boost the dollar.
As if that weren’t enough, the US Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) manufacturing PMI comes out Friday along with the final US Markit manufacturing PMI. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI showed little change from the previous month, in contrast to the sharp rises in several of the regional Fed manufacturing indices. That’s raised some questions about exactly what is going on with US manufacturing. The more closely watched ISM index should settle the argument.
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